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To:
Connecticut SKYWARN Spotters and Coordinators
FROM:
Steve Williams K1SJW CT ARES DEC SKYWARN
Subject:
Severe Weather Potential for Thursday September 30, 2010
The information appearing below is
graphical and text summaries of current National Weather Service
information and data relative to NWS weather forecasts of severe
weather threats for the current day. The information is intended
to provide situational awareness of adverse and/or severe
weather threats that may have an impact on counties within the
State of Connecticut.
Synopsis:
A large low pressure
system will be moving up the eastern seaboard through the region
on Thursday and overnight into Friday morning. This system will
bring the potential of several inches of rainfall and strong
winds which could create flooding conditions and wind damage
including downed trees, power lines, and power outages. In
addition the remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole will be absorbed
into this system further adding to the
rainfall and wind damage threat.
In addition there will be the
possibility for thunderstorms to develop and move rapidly north
with in a low cape high shear environment which may cause
rotation leading to the possible development of tornados.
At this time a High Wind Watch for
winds of 50 to 60 mph has been issued for the entire state. In
addition a flood watch has been issued for Fairfield,
Litchfield, Middlesex, New Haven, and New London Counties.
Generally 1 to 3 inches of
rainfall is forecast to occur across the state with the high
rainfall totals in the western side of the state. Some areas
could however receive more that 3 inches of rainfall from this
system which could lead to urban and poor drainage area flooding
concerns.
Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
Current Overview:
Current Day 1 Convective
Outlook:
Current Day 2 Convective
Outlook:
SPC AC 291714
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK
NWS STORM
PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT WED
SEP 29 2010
VALID 301200Z -
011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT
RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NC NWD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW OVER
NE AL WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NNE INTO THE CAROLINAS
ON THURSDAY AS ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY DIGS SEWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. A SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL TRAVEL NWD ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM ERN NC INTO SCNTRL
PA BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND UPSTATE NY BY EVENING.
TO THE W...UPPER
RIDGE WILL AGGRANDIZE NWD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION AS A WEAK UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE
SRN CA. COAST.
...ERN NC NWD INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... STRONG BELT OF
LOW/MID-LEVEL SLY FLOW /H85 OF 65+KT/ ALONG ERN PARTS
OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE NWD FROM ERN NC
INTO NY/NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
VERY STRONG 0-1KM SHEAR WILL
RESULT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
LOW. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LWR/MID 70S
WILL FLOOD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF VA NWD
INTO SCNTRL/SERN PA AND NJ. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SITUATION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH RAPIDLY MOVING
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON
FROM ERN NC/TIDEWATER VA NWD INTO SCNTRL/SERN PA
AND SRN/CNTRL NJ.
..RACY..
09/29/2010
Current Day 3 Convective
Outlook:
SPC Current Mesoscale
Discussions:
SPC Current Convective Watches:
SPC Storm Reports for Current
Day:
SPC Storm Reports for Previous
Day:
Preliminary Local Storm Damage
Reports for Connecticut:
Public Information Statements
(Regional Storm Totals):
Current US Forecast Weather
Map:
Current GOES Eastern Sector IR Satellite Image:
Current National Radar Mosaic:
Current Northeast Sector Radar
Mosaic:
Current Radar Image of
Connecticut (NWS Albany NY Radar)
Current Radar Image of
Connecticut (NWS Upton NY Radar)
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=okx&overlays=11101111&product=N0R&loop=no
Current Radar Image of
Connecticut (NWS Boston MA Radar)
CURRENT WATCHES, WARNINGS,
ADVISORIES for Connecticut:
Litchfield County: High wind Watch
Flood Watch
Hartford, Tolland, Windham
Counties: High Wind Watch
Fairfield, New Haven, Middlesex,
New London Counties: High Wind Watch Flood Watch
CURRENT HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOKS for Connecticut:
Current SKYWARN Spotter
Activation Status for Connecticut:
Litchfield County:
Spotter activation not expected at this time.
Hartford, Tolland, and Windham
Counties: Spotter activation not expected at this time.
Fairfield, New Haven, Middlesex,
and New London Counties: Spotter activation will likely be
needed.
CURRENT FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
for Connecticut:
SKYWARN spotters are encouraged
to monitor NOAA Weather Radio broadcasts for current information
on the Hazardous Weather Outlook, Watches, Warnings, Advisories,
and requests for SKYWARN Spotter Activation in your county.
During the summer convective
season the SKYWARN spotter network is automatically activated at
the time a Severe Thunder Storm or Tornado Watch is issued
for your county. Once activated the spotter network remains
activated until the threat of severe weather has ended for your
county.
When severe weather watches or
warnings are issued Amateur Radio Operators are encouraged
to monitor the VHF repeaters used for SKYWARN nets in your area
and to check into the net when it activates. For a list of the
VHF repeater frequencies used by SKYWARN in Connecticut please
go to the Connecticut SKYWARN Webpage at
http://www.ctskywarn.com/
Spotters should report their
observations by way of Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets or the private
800 spotter phone line for the NWS Forecast Office that covers
your county. Spotters should not use the Internet spotter report
forms to report storm damage from severe thunder storms/
tornados/ flash flooding since these reports concern immediate
safety of life and property issues.
Situational Awareness/Disaster
Intelligence:
Because SKYWARN is active during
severe weather events, spotters are in the position of being
among the first to become aware of significant storm related
damage that may occur within a community. This information may
come from a spotter’s own observations or from monitoring public
safety frequencies and reporting only that damage the spotter
has been able to obtain confirmation of.
Examples of significant damage
that spotters may become aware of are:
Major roadways leading into or out
of a community that becomes impassable due to downed trees,
power lines, utility poles, or flooding
Loss of power and/or telephone
communication to large portions of or an entire community
Loss of infrastructure including
damaged buildings, damage to public safety radio communications
equipment, and damage to bridges or roadways washed out from
flooding
Evacuations or the opening of
shelters within a community
Critical Priority
High Priority
Steve Williams K1SJW ARRL CT Section ARES DEC SKYWARN Home 860-379-8392 Cell 860-480-2564 Email address k1sjw@arrl.net pan class="c22" |